Grey belt holds potential for 800,000 new homes for social housing sector
John McLarty
Feb, 10 2025Grey Belt Could Deliver 800,000 Social Homes Across England
The latest research by planning and development consultancy Ceres Property reveals that Labour’s introduction of the grey belt could significantly boost social housing stock across England. The analysis suggests the grey belt could enable delivery of around 800,000 additional homes to the social housing sector.
How the Grey Belt Unlocks Housing Potential
Ceres Property examined the current market split between private enterprise and social housing delivery. Using data on the potential number of homes that could be built on grey belt land, the team calculated the likely impact on social housing provision.*
Figures show that the grey belt could deliver over 3.4 million new homes to the property market nationwide.
Current Market Split and Projected Impact
Today, three quarters of new homes come from private enterprise, while social housing accounts for 23% via housing associations and 2% via local authorities.
Applying this ratio to the grey belt’s housing potential indicates that 801,404 new homes could be delivered to the social housing sector.
Regional Highlights: Where Social Housing Could Surge
The West Midlands leads the way, with grey belt land estimated to deliver 555,068 new homes. Given that 28% of homes in this region are delivered through housing associations and local authorities, this translates to 155,295 additional social homes.
Four other regions could each see more than 100,000 new social homes:
- East of England – 135,283
- South East – 129,044
- North West – 120,038
- Yorkshire and the Humber – 100,606
Market Value of Grey Belt Social Housing
Based on current market values, Ceres Property estimates that the 801,404 potential social homes could represent a combined value of £350.8 billion.
Expert Commentary
John McLarty, Managing Partner at Ceres Property, commented:
*”Since Labour first produced its manifesto, it’s been clear they intend to bring dramatic change to the property market, and creating the grey belt is the first step.
As a nation, we need to build more homes, and designating grey belt land unlocks huge potential to meet housing targets. But we must not overlook the importance of social housing in this mix. Our research shows grey belt development could make significant progress in this area.
Of course, creating the grey belt is only the beginning. The next challenge is delivering these homes effectively, and execution will be critical.
For now, these numbers should encourage many, given what they could mean for social support across England.”*
Data Tables and Sources
- Estimated number of potential new homes delivered by provider based on the completion split over the last 12 months applied to the estimated potential number of new homes delivered on grey belt sites. Split of completions over the last 12 months sourced from Gov UK – indicators of new supply.
- Average new-build house prices by region sourced from Gov UK – UK House Price Index (November 2024 – latest available).